This Just Changed My Mind About AGI
Okay, here is a summary of the key points from the video:
The video creator believes AGI will likely happen in the 2020s based on the exponential progress happening in AI and ML. Papers and models are coming out at an incredible pace.
There are already “sparks of AGI” with models like GPT-4 which can teach itself, outsource tasks to other models, act autonomously, and pursue multi-step goals. The key capability is being able to do superhuman feats that surpass human intelligence.
Some experts recently signed a petition to pause AI progress, concerned about advanced models like GPT-4. However, the creator thinks stopping progress will be very difficult given economic and competitive incentives. And GPT-4 can continue improving itself through self-reflection.
Two recent papers show how GPT-4 could develop into AGI:
Hugging GPT: Shows how GPT-4 could act as a “controller” to manage many AI models and solve complex tasks. It can understand requests, select the right models, execute them, and generate responses.
Auto GPT: An experiment where GPT-4 autonomously develops and manages businesses to achieve goals. It can break down goals into steps, search the internet, manage memory, and generate appropriate responses and files. This shows GPT-4’s autonomous and open-domain capabilities.
- A few problems remain to solve for AGI:
GPT-4 is an auto-regressive model, so it struggles with “discontinuous” tasks where the ending is known upfront. External memory could help.
Embodiment - AGI needs a physical form to have true intelligence and agency in the real world. Digital-only AGI will be limited. But embodied AGI is also scary given the risks of superhuman physical capabilities.
- Questions around OpenAI’s role given its move to becoming a for-profit company focused on secrecy. The creator questions if they are the right organization to develop AGI.
That covers the main highlights and arguments around why the video creator believes AGI may be close and what's needed to achieve it based on models like GPT-4 and recent research papers.
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Age of Invisible Machines: A Practical Guide to Creating a Hyperautomated Ecosystem of Intelligent Digital Workers (English Edition)